Accuracy

How often the network's forecasts for the next 24 hours turned out right, stream by stream. Every forecast is saved before the outcome is known and checked against the real price a day later. Misses stay in the record.

How to read these numbers

Right about the direction: The share of forecasts that correctly said whether the price would be higher or lower a day later.
Average error: How far the forecast was from the real price a day later, on average, as a percentage of that price. Lower is better.
If the price had not moved: The error you would get by simply assuming the price stays where it is.
Landed in the network's range: Neurons never agree exactly. The range is where the middle 80% of their forecasts fell. This is how often the real price ended up inside it.

Showing 13 to 18 of 86 · last 30 days

PolkadotDOT

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

52.3%

right about the direction

Average error: 3.68%
If the price had not moved: 3.66%

Worse than assuming no change

37.2% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed54.3% right · 129 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed53.0% right · 132 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed49.6% right · 226 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed48.4% right · 190 forecasts
Over 90% agreed48.5% right · 324 forecasts

CosmosATOM

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

51.0%

right about the direction

Average error: 3.31%
If the price had not moved: 3.29%

Worse than assuming no change

42.1% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed42.6% right · 136 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed41.8% right · 110 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed46.4% right · 196 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed44.6% right · 231 forecasts
Over 90% agreed52.1% right · 328 forecasts

UniswapUNI

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

52.4%

right about the direction

Average error: 3.72%
If the price had not moved: 3.67%

Worse than assuming no change

50.1% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed46.5% right · 114 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed48.5% right · 130 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed53.9% right · 217 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed49.8% right · 219 forecasts
Over 90% agreed53.3% right · 321 forecasts

AaveAAVE

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

53.3%

right about the direction

Average error: 3.68%
If the price had not moved: 3.64%

Worse than assuming no change

47.7% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed42.9% right · 119 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed49.6% right · 129 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed46.6% right · 219 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed58.0% right · 219 forecasts
Over 90% agreed53.3% right · 315 forecasts

AlgorandALGO

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

55.2%

right about the direction

Average error: 4.17%
If the price had not moved: 4.16%

Worse than assuming no change

44.1% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed42.1% right · 95 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed50.4% right · 133 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed48.4% right · 219 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed59.3% right · 246 forecasts
Over 90% agreed55.5% right · 308 forecasts

FilecoinFIL

Open forecast

Last 30 days · checked on 30 days · 694 forecasts

48.8%

right about the direction

Average error: 5.02%
If the price had not moved: 5.00%

Worse than assuming no change

40.9% landed in the network's range

Was it right more often when more of the network agreed? (all time)

50 to 60% agreed50.9% right · 108 forecasts
60 to 70% agreed48.5% right · 134 forecasts
70 to 80% agreed52.7% right · 205 forecasts
80 to 90% agreed44.4% right · 196 forecasts
Over 90% agreed47.2% right · 358 forecasts