FAQ
Where the numbers come from, and what they do and do not mean.
Where do these forecasts come from?
From the Satori network: thousands of independent neurons that each train models on public data streams and publish predictions continuously. Satori Signals does not forecast anything itself. It aggregates what the network produced and presents the consensus.
How is the consensus number calculated?
Every prediction for a stream inside the current window is collected, then reduced to a median. The band drawn under the crowd is the middle half of it, the 25th to the 75th percentile. The network does not weight its neurons by past performance when it forms this number, so neither do we.
What does the confidence percentage mean?
It is a measure of how tightly the neurons agree with each other: the share of them on the same side of the median as the forecast itself. It is agreement, not a probability of being right. The accuracy page shows how often forecasts at each level of agreement actually called the direction, so you can see what a given figure has been worth.
How is accuracy measured?
Every hour the network's consensus for each stream is written down before its outcome is known, then graded a day later against the first price that printed at or past the 24 hour mark. A hit means the direction was called; whether the price also landed inside the crowd's band is reported beside it. Every error figure is shown next to what simply repeating the last price would have scored, because a forecast that cannot beat that is not a forecast. Nothing is graded in hindsight and misses stay in the record.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are model outputs shown for information only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.